Statistics & Probability: notes and practice questions
The most technology-dependent topic and the least algebraic. Sampling, data presentation, central tendency and dispersion, correlation and regression, then probability from sample spaces through conditional probability to the binomial and normal distributions. The IB expects nearly all of the calculation to be done on a GDC, and the formula booklet reflects that: there is no Pearson's formula, no regression formula and no normal density function in the AA booklet. What is examined is set-up and interpretation. HL adds only two subtopics, Bayes' theorem for at most three events, and the properties of random variables including continuous ones, which is the only place AA statistics needs calculus.
Subtopics
- Practice questionsStats basics (population, 5 sampling techniques, outlier definition)
Population: The entire set of data or individuals being studied. Sampling Techniques:
- Practice questionsPresentation of data (frequency distribution tables, histograms, box & whisker, cumulative frequency graphs + finding median quartiles, percentiles, range, iqr)
Frequency distribution tables organize data into intervals (bins) with corresponding frequencies. Histograms represent data as bars to show frequency distribution.
- Practice questionsMeasures of central tendency & measures of dispersion (std. Dev, var, IQR)
Central Tendency: Mean: Average of the data.
- Practice questionsLinear Correlation of bivariate data (scatter diagrams, lines of best fit, Pearson)
Scatter diagrams display pairs of data points to show the relationship between two variables. The line of best fit (or regression line) represents the linear relationship, typically found using the least squares method.
- Practice questionsProbability basics (expected #, complementary events, probability of event)
Probability of an event (P(E)): .
- Practice questionsVenn diagrams, tree diagrams, probability tables (+ notation & combined & mutually exclusive events)
Venn diagrams represent sets and probabilities visually, showing intersections (), unions (), and complements (). Tree diagrams display sequential events and their probabilities.
- Practice questionsConditional probability and independent events
Conditional Probability: The probability of event given that has occurred: .
- Practice questionsProbability distribution tables for discrete random variables
A discrete random variable takes specific, countable values, each with a probability . The sum of probabilities is always 1:
- Practice questionsBinomial distribution
Describes the probability of successes in independent trials of a binary event (success/failure) with probability of success . Probability mass function:
- Practice questionsNormal distribution + bell curve (+inv normal)
A continuous, symmetric, bell-shaped curve representing data distributed around a mean () with standard deviation (). Probability is calculated using the z-score:
- Practice questionsRegression lines and reverse regression (x on y) + applications
Regression line (y on x): Predicts using , expressed as . Reverse regression (x on y): Predicts using , expressed as .
- Practice questionsStandardisation of normal variables
Standardising converts a normal variable with mean and standard deviation to a standard normal variable : .
- Practice questionsBayes theoremHL only
Binomial Distribution: Models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials with constant success probability (, ). Key stats: Mean = , Variance = . Use Binomial PDF for exact probabilities and CDF for cumulative ones. Normal Distribution: A continuous distribution, denoted . Characterized by its bell curve. Standardize using to get . Use Normal CDF to find probabilities (areas) and Inverse Normal to find values given probabilities. Empirical rule: ~68% within , ~95% within , ~99.7% within .
- Practice questionsRandom variables + effects linear transformations (mean, variance)HL only
Random variables can be discrete (countable) or continuous (measurable). For discrete variables, use Probability Mass Functions (PMF) to define probabilities, and calculate mean and variance using summations.