Probability distribution tables for discrete random variables: notes and practice questions
- A discrete random variable takes specific, countable values, each with a probability .
- The sum of probabilities is always 1:
- Expected value (mean):
- Variance:
How it is examined
Two parts almost every time: use to find an unknown, then compute . The fair-game reading is the applied version and the question asks for a value of a stake that makes . Variance is not SL content, so an SL question must not ask for it. 4 to 6 marks.
is given.
- Concept of discrete random variables and their probability distributions.
- Expected value (mean), for discrete data.
- Applications.
Extended at AHL 4.14 (variance, continuous random variables, linear transformations).
Linking questions
- Other contexts: games of chance.
- TOK: what do we mean by a "fair" game?
Practice questions
27 questions · 18 medium · 9 hardQuestion 1
MediumPaper 1 · no calculator6 marksOn a Saturday at a cinema, a sample of 50 customers was randomly selected. They were asked how many snack items they had purchased. This information is summarized in the following frequency table.
| Number of snacks purchased () | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frequency () | 8 | 15 | 20 | 5 | 2 |
It can be assumed that this sample is representative of all customers for the following day.
For the following day, Sunday, estimate
(i) the probability that a randomly selected customer will purchase at least one snack item.
For the following day, Sunday, estimate
(ii) the expected number of snacks purchased by a customer.
It is known that 800 customers will attend the cinema on Sunday. The average price of a snack item is $5.50.
Estimate the total revenue from snack sales on Sunday.
To find the probability of purchasing at least one snack, you can either sum the frequencies for 1, 2, 3, and 4 snacks and divide by the total number of customers, or you can find the probability of purchasing zero snacks and subtract this from 1.
The expected value is calculated by summing the product of each outcome and its probability. For a frequency table, this is .
First, use your answer from part (a.ii) to estimate the total number of snacks that will be sold to the 800 customers. Then, use the average price per snack to calculate the total revenue.
Question 2
HardPaper 1 · no calculator16 marksA spinner with four sectors is spun. The sectors are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. Let be the score obtained when the spinner is spun. The probability distribution for is given in the following table.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **P()** | 0.1 | 0.3 |
(a) Find the value of .
(b) Find the value of .
A second spinner, B, is also spun. Let be the score obtained. The probability distribution for is given in the following table.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **P()** |
(c) (i) State the range of possible values of .
(ii) Hence, find the range of possible values of .
(d) Hence, find the range of possible values for .
Leo spins spinner A once and Mia spins spinner B once. The probability that Leo's score is greater than Mia's score is .
(e) Find the value of .
What is the sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution?
Recall the formula for the expected value of a discrete random variable, .
What is the fundamental range for any probability value?
Use the relationship between m and n from the fact that all probabilities sum to 1, combined with your answer from (c.i).
Express E(Y) in terms of a single variable (either m or n) and then use the range you found in part (c) to find the minimum and maximum possible values for E(Y).
First, list all the possible outcomes where Leo's score (X) is greater than Mia's score (Y). Then, write an expression for the total probability of this event in terms of m and n. Set this expression equal to the given probability and solve for m. Finally, use this value to calculate E(Y).
Question 3
MediumPaper 1 · no calculator7 marksA local coffee shop, "The Daily Grind", surveyed a random sample of 50 customers about their purchasing habits over one week. The following table shows the number of coffees purchased by these customers.
| Number of coffees purchased | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| 1 | 12 |
| 2 | 18 |
| 3 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 |
This sample is considered representative of all customers for the following week.
For the following week, estimate:
(a.i) the probability that a randomly selected customer will purchase at least one coffee;
(a.ii) the expected number of coffees a customer will purchase.
(b) The coffee shop expects to serve 800 customers in the following week. Each large batch of coffee brewed can serve a maximum of 20 cups.
Estimate the minimum number of large batches of coffee that must be brewed to meet the expected demand.
The probability of purchasing at least one coffee is 1 minus the probability of purchasing zero coffees. Alternatively, sum the frequencies for customers who bought 1, 2, 3, or 4 coffees and divide by the total number of customers surveyed.
The expected value is the sum of each outcome multiplied by its probability. Remember to use the total number of customers surveyed to find the probabilities for each outcome.
First, calculate the total number of coffees expected to be sold in the week for all 800 customers. Then, use the capacity of each batch to determine how many batches are needed. Remember that you cannot brew a fraction of a batch.
Question 4
HardPaper 1 · no calculator16 marksA biased four-sided spinner, A, is spun. Let be the score obtained. The probability distribution for is given in the following table.
| Score () | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Find the value of .
Hence, find the value of .
A second biased four-sided spinner, B, is spun. Let be the score obtained. The probability distribution for is given in the following table.
| Score () | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
(i) State the range of possible values of .
(ii) Hence, find the range of possible values of .
Hence, find the range of possible values for .
Leo spins spinner A once and Mia spins spinner B once. The probability that Leo's score is greater than Mia's score is .
Find the value of .
The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution must be equal to 1.
The expected value is the sum of each outcome multiplied by its probability. Use the value of you found in part (a).
What is the possible range for any probability value?
Use the fact that the probabilities for Spinner B must sum to 1. Express in terms of and then use the range of you found in the previous part.
First, write an expression for in terms of and . Then, use the relationship between and to express in terms of a single variable. Finally, use the range of that variable to find the range of the expected value.
First, identify all the pairs of scores where . Then, for each pair, calculate the probability of it occurring in terms of and/or . Sum these probabilities and set the total equal to the given value, . Solve for or , and then calculate the expected value.
Question 5
MediumPaper 1 · no calculator6 marksConsider a geometric sequence with and .
(a) Find the common ratio, .
(b) The following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable such that , where and .
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
| 4 |
Find the value of .
Recall the formula for the nth term of a geometric sequence, . Substitute the given values to set up an equation for .
A key property of any probability distribution is that the sum of all probabilities must equal 1. Use this fact to set up an equation involving . You will need to find the values of and first.
Question 6
HardPaper 2 · calculator15 marksAll answers in this question should be given to four significant figures.
A popular online game offers players a 'Mystery Box' for £5. Each box contains a prize, with the probability distribution for the prize value shown in the following table. For example, the probability of a player receiving £ is 0.04. The initial grand prize in the first week of the game is £.
| 0 | 0.75 |
| 5 | |
| 25 | 0.04 |
| 100 | 0.005 |
| Grand Prize | 0.0002 |
(a) Find the value of .
(b) Determine whether purchasing a mystery box in the first week is a fair game. Justify your answer.
(c) If the grand prize is not won and continues to triple each week, while all other prize amounts and probabilities remain the same, write an expression in terms of for the value of the grand prize in the th week of the game.
(d) The th week is the first week in which a player is expected to make a profit from purchasing a mystery box. If a player purchases a mystery box in the th week, their expected profit is .
Find the value of .
Remember that the sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution must equal 1.
A game is considered fair if the expected winnings are equal to the cost to play. Calculate the expected value of the prize and compare it to the £5 cost.
This scenario describes a geometric sequence. Identify the initial term and the common ratio.
First, set up an inequality where the expected value of the prize in week is greater than the cost of the box. Solve for using logarithms to find . Then, calculate the expected value for week and subtract the cost to find the profit.
Question 7
MediumPaper 1 · no calculator8 marksA spinner has four sectors. When the spinner is spun, the score, Y, is a discrete random variable. The probability distribution of Y is given in the following table:
| y | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(Y=y) | k | 2k | 0.5-k | 0.5-2k |
(a) Find the range of possible values of k.
(b) In the case where , determine .
Remember that any probability P(Y=y) must be greater than or equal to zero. Set up inequalities for each probability expression involving k and solve for k.
First, calculate the probabilities for each value of Y when k=0.1. Then, find the expected value E(Y) and the expected value of the square, E(Y^2). Use these to find Var(Y). Finally, recall the property for the variance of a linear transformation: Var(aY+b) = a^2 Var(Y).
Question 8
HardPaper 2 · calculator16 marks(a) The random variable follows a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation .
Find .
(b) The diameters of ball bearings produced by a factory, in mm, are normally distributed with mean and standard deviation . The ball bearings are categorized as defective, standard, large, or premium, according to their diameter. The following table shows the probability a ball bearing is classified into each category.
| Category | Probability |
|---|---|
| Defective | 0.03 |
| Standard | 0.65 |
| Large | 0.25 |
| Premium | 0.07 |
The maximum diameter of a defective ball bearing is 14.8 mm.
The minimum diameter of a premium ball bearing is 16.5 mm.
Find the value of and of .
(c) The factory rejects all defective ball bearings. The remaining ball bearings are sold.
Find the probability that a ball bearing chosen at random from those sold is categorized as
(i) standard;
(ii) large;
(iii) premium.
(d) The selling prices of the different categories of ball bearings at this factory are shown in the following table:
| Category | Selling Price ($) |
|---|---|
| Standard | 1.50 |
| Large | 1.80 |
| Premium | 2.50 |
The factory incurs a fixed cost of $300 for the production run and assumes it will sell the accepted ball bearings in exactly the same proportion as calculated in part (c).
According to this model, find the minimum number of accepted ball bearings that must be sold so that the net profit for the factory is at least $550.
Recall that for a normal distribution, you can standardize the variable to a standard normal variable using the formula . Then use your GDC to find the probability.
Use the given probabilities and boundary values to find the corresponding z-scores. Then, set up two simultaneous equations involving and and solve them.
This is a conditional probability problem. The new sample space consists only of non-defective ball bearings.
Remember to use the new sample space (non-defective ball bearings) for this conditional probability.
The denominator for the conditional probability remains the probability of a non-defective ball bearing.
First, calculate the expected revenue per accepted ball bearing using the probabilities from part (c) and the selling prices. Then, set up an inequality for the total profit.
Question 9
MediumPaper 2 · calculator6 marksA discrete random variable, X, represents the number of successful attempts in a particular game. The probability distribution for X is given in the table below:
| X | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(X=x) |
Show that .
Find the value of k, giving a reason for your answer.
Hence, find E(X).
Remember that the sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution must equal 1.
Solve the quadratic equation from part (a). Then, consider the properties of probabilities (they must be non-negative) to determine which value of k is valid.
Substitute the valid value of k back into the probability distribution to find the specific probabilities. Then use the formula for expected value, E(X) = ΣxP(X=x).
Question 10
HardPaper 2 · calculator17 marks(a) A batch of electronic components contains defective components and functional components. Components are selected randomly, one by one, without replacement.
(i) Find, in terms of , the probability that the first component selected is defective.
(ii) Given that , , and , find the probability that the first two components selected are defective.
(b) Show that the probability that the first two components selected are functional is 0.35.
(c) Find the probability that the first three components selected are all functional.
(d) Find the probability that at least one of the first three components selected is defective.
(e) A technician earns 10 points if the first defective component is found on the third test, and 50 points if the first defective component is found on the fourth test. The technician tests such batches. Find the least value of such that the technician's expected total score is greater than 100.
The probability of an event is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
Consider the probability of the first event, then the probability of the second event given the first, and multiply them.
Similar to part (a.ii), but for functional components. Simplify the fraction to show the decimal.
Extend the logic from part (b) for three consecutive functional components.
Consider the complementary event: what is the opposite of 'at least one defective'?
First, calculate the probability of finding the first defective component on the third test. Then, calculate the probability of finding the first defective component on the fourth test. Use these probabilities to find the expected points per batch, and then set up an inequality for the total expected score.
Question 11
MediumPaper 2 · calculator7 marksA scientific team is studying the distribution of a rare particle in a specialized chamber. The probability density function for the distance (in cm) of a particle from the chamber's center is given by
where .
Show that .
Find the value of .
Remember that for a probability density function, the integral over its entire domain must equal 1. Consider using a substitution method for integration.
You may need to use your GDC to solve the equation derived in part (a).
Question 12
HardPaper 2 · calculator8 marksA bakery is running a promotion where customers can win free pastries. A customer spins a special prize wheel 6 times. The wheel has three equally likely outcomes: 'Croissant', 'Muffin', or 'Danish'. A 'successful spin' is defined as landing on 'Croissant'.
Based on the number of 'Croissant' spins, the customer receives free pastries according to these rules:
- If the number of 'Croissant' spins is an even number, the customer receives 1 free pastry.
- If all 6 spins result in 'Croissant' OR all 6 spins result in a non-'Croissant' outcome (i.e., all 'Muffin' or 'Danish'), the customer receives 3 free pastries. This condition overrides the previous one if there is an overlap.
- In all other scenarios, the customer receives 0 free pastries.
Calculate the expected number of free pastries a customer wins and the expected number of times a customer wins nothing.
Identify the type of probability distribution for the number of 'Croissant' spins. Determine the probability of a 'successful spin'. Then, for each possible number of 'Croissant' spins, assign the corresponding number of free pastries. Finally, use the formula for expected value, . Remember that 'expected number of times an event occurs' in a single trial is equal to the probability of that event.
Question 13
MediumPaper 2 · calculator15 marks(a) The lifespan of a new type of battery, hours, can be modelled by a normal distribution with a mean of 1200 hours and a standard deviation of hours.
Given that 5% of the batteries last longer than 1280 hours, find the value of .
(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected battery will have a lifespan of less than 1150 hours.
(c) Given that a battery lasts longer than 1150 hours, find the probability that it lasts less than 1250 hours.
(d) A batch of 500 batteries is produced. Find the expected number of batteries that will have a lifespan of less than 1150 hours.
(e) Find the probability that more than 85 of the batteries in this batch will have a lifespan of less than 1150 hours.
For part (a), use the inverse normal function on your GDC to find the z-score corresponding to the given percentile. Then, use the z-score formula to solve for . Remember that 5% lasting longer means 95% last less than that value.
For part (b), use the normal cumulative distribution function (CDF) on your GDC with the mean and standard deviation found in part (a). You need to find .
For part (c), this is a conditional probability problem. Recall the formula . Here, A is 'lasts less than 1250 hours' and B is 'lasts longer than 1150 hours'. So you need to find and .
For part (d), this involves a binomial distribution. The number of trials is the batch size, and the probability of success is the probability calculated in part (b). The expected number of successes in a binomial distribution is given by .
For part (e), you need to calculate for the binomial distribution . Remember that , and your GDC can compute using binomial CDF.
Question 14
HardPaper 2 · calculator15 marksThe lifespan, in years, of a new type of rechargeable battery is modelled by a continuous random variable with probability density function defined by
Find the mode of .
Find .
Find the median of .
A manufacturer offers a warranty for these batteries. If a battery fails within the first years, it is replaced free of charge. However, if a battery lasts longer than years, it is considered a premium product and the customer receives a discount on their next purchase.
Find the probability that a randomly selected battery is either replaced under warranty or qualifies for a premium discount.
The manufacturer sells each battery for 2.530. If it lasts years or longer, there is no additional cost.
Find the expected cost to the manufacturer per battery. Give your answer correct to the nearest cent.
The mode of a continuous random variable is the value of at which the probability density function reaches its maximum. For a quadratic function, this occurs at the vertex. You can find the vertex by differentiating and setting the derivative to zero, or by using the axis of symmetry formula for a parabola.
To find the probability for a continuous random variable over an interval, you need to integrate the probability density function over that interval.
The median of a continuous random variable is the value such that the probability of the variable being less than or equal to is . This means . Remember the lower bound of your PDF.
The event 'replaced under warranty' corresponds to . The event 'qualifies for a premium discount' corresponds to . Since these events are mutually exclusive, you can calculate the probability of each event separately and then add them together.
Define the cost function as a piecewise function based on the lifespan . Then calculate the expected value by integrating over the respective intervals.
Question 15
MediumPaper 2 · calculator5 marks(a) A game involves spinning a wheel with four possible outcomes, represented by the discrete random variable , which is the number of points scored. The probability distribution of is given in the table below, where .
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Given that the expected number of points, , is , find the value of .
Remember two key properties of probability distributions: the sum of all probabilities must equal 1, and the expected value is calculated as . Set up a system of equations using these properties and solve for the unknown variables.
Question 16
HardPaper 2 · calculator16 marksLeo has a box of tokens which are coloured either silver, gold or bronze.
The box contains exactly 15 bronze tokens. The number of silver tokens is four times the number of gold tokens.
Leo plays a game where he takes 12 tokens out of the box, one at a time. He notes the colour of each token and returns it to the box before taking the next token out of the box.
The probability that the first token is bronze is 0.3.
Show that there are 28 silver tokens in the box.
Find the probability that at least 7 of the 12 tokens that Leo takes are bronze. Give your answer correct to five significant figures.
Leo has to pay to take part in the game. If he takes at least 7 tokens of the same colour, he wins a prize. If he does not take at least 7 tokens of the same colour, then he does not win a prize. There is a different prize for each colour, as shown in the following table, where .
| Outcome | At least 7 gold tokens | At least 7 bronze tokens | At least 7 silver tokens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prize |
Let the random variable represent Leo's net gain in dollars when he plays the game once. For example, if he takes at least 7 gold tokens, his net gain is since he gains .
The probability distribution of is shown in the following table, with probabilities given correct to four decimal places, where .
| 90 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0004 | 0.0386 | 0.5552 |
Write down the value of .
Use the probabilities in the table to find the value of .
Determine the smallest integer value of for which Leo could expect to make a positive net gain.
Leo wants to play the game until he wins a prize.
Find the minimum number of times Leo needs to play the game in order that the probability of winning at least one prize is greater than 0.999.
Use the probability of drawing a bronze token to find the total number of tokens in the box first.
Model the number of bronze tokens drawn as a binomial distribution.
The value represents the net gain if Leo wins the prize for silver tokens. Remember to subtract the cost of playing the game.
The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution table must equal 1.
Set up an inequality where the expected value is greater than 0, and solve for .
The probability of winning at least one prize is .
Question 17
MediumPaper 2 · calculator9 marksA game involves rolling a special die. The number of points obtained, , is a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution:
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
| 4 |
where .
Given that the expected number of points is , find the value of .
Remember the two fundamental properties of probability distributions: the sum of all probabilities must equal 1, and the formula for expected value. Set up a system of equations and solve for the unknowns.
Question 18
HardPaper 1 · no calculator15 marksA computer system has a list of possible passwords, three of which are classified as 'weak'. A hacker tries passwords from the list at random, one by one, without replacement. The system locks down when a weak password is tried.
Find the probability, in terms of , that the system locks down on the first attempt.
Find the probability, in terms of , that the system locks down on the second attempt.
Let . Find the probability that the system will lock down on the
third attempt.
fourth attempt.
The hacker is part of a simulation where . The simulation costs $24 to run. The hacker receives a payout depending on the number of attempts it takes to find a weak password. Let be the payout amount. This information is shown in the following table.
| Attempt number | Payout (P) |
|---|---|
| 1 | $0 |
| 2 | $30 |
| 3 | $5k |
| 4 | $15k |
Find the value of so that this is a fair game.
The probability of an event is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. How many weak passwords are there, and how many total passwords are there initially?
For the system to lock down on the second attempt, what must be true about the first attempt? Remember that the passwords are not replaced after being tried.
For the system to lock down on the third attempt, the first two attempts must be non-weak passwords. Calculate the probability of this sequence of events happening for n=6.
Similar to the previous part, what sequence of events must occur for the system to lock down on the fourth attempt? Calculate the probability of this sequence.
A fair game is one where the expected payout is equal to the cost of playing. First, you need to calculate the probabilities for the game ending on the 1st and 2nd attempts for n=6. Then, set up an equation for the expected payout, E(P), and set it equal to the cost.
Question 19
MediumPaper 2 · calculator6 marksA game development studio is analyzing the success rate of its new feature launches. Let Y be a discrete random variable representing the number of successful features launched in a quarter, with the following probability distribution:
| y | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(Y = y) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
Show that .
Find the value of , giving a reason for your answer.
Hence, find E(Y).
Remember that the sum of all probabilities in a discrete probability distribution must equal 1.
Solve the quadratic equation from part (a). Then, check which solution makes all probabilities valid (i.e., non-negative).
Use the valid value of found in part (b) to determine the full probability distribution. Then, apply the formula for expected value: .
Question 20
MediumPaper 2 · calculator6 marksThe following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable , representing the points scored in a mini-game, where .
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P() |
Given that E() = 1.2, find the value of .
Remember that the sum of all probabilities in a discrete probability distribution must equal 1. Also, use the formula for the expected value, E() = . You will need to set up a system of equations and likely use your GDC to solve a cubic equation.
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